Money-Market Rates in Dollars Drop Before Fed

(Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing dollars fell the most in four months before a $30 billion cash auction by the Federal Reserve to break the logjam in short-term lending.

The three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollars fell 20 basis points to 4.06 percent, the British Bankers' Association said today. That's the biggest decline since Sept. 19, the day after the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate a half point. The equivalent euro and pound rates also dropped.

The Fed is offering cash in the first of two $30 billion emergency-cash injections. The European Central Bank plans two $10 billion auctions this month and the Bank of England will offer 10 billion pounds ($19.6 billion) tomorrow. Policy makers are responding to about $100 billion of losses at financial institutions after the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market.

``Central banks are committed to providing banks with as much cash as is necessary to prevent pressures escalating,'' said Lena Komileva, an economist in London at Tullett Prebon Plc, part of the world's second-biggest inter-dealer broker. ``There's a consensus view among policy officials that further coordinated action will be required to achieve this.''

The three-month euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, dropped 2 basis points to 4.56 percent, the European Banking Federation said. It was at a seven-year high of 4.95 percent on Dec. 12, when policy makers said they would combine forces to counter a short-term credit shortage. The comparable pound rate fell 1 basis point to 5.67 percent.

 

Read more at Bloomberg

U.S. Stock Futures Rise on IBM Profit, Rate-Cut Speculation

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rallied after International Business Machines Corp.'s profit topped analysts' estimates and investors bet on larger interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

IBM, the world's biggest computer-services provider, rose on results that were boosted by international growth. Apple Inc. climbed after Bank of America Corp. increased its earnings forecast for the maker of the iPod media player. Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining Corp. advanced as gold reached a record.

The gains today signaled that the market may rebound from the worst start for a year since 1982. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in March added 10 to 1,417.8 as of 9:16 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 111 to 12,772 and Nasdaq 100 Index futures increased 24.75 to 1,950.25.

``One of the driving forces behind weakness in the markets had been the theory corporate earnings would be squeezed with the global slowdown,'' said Tim Smalls, head of U.S. trading at Execution LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``IBM telling you they're doing well is going to take a little bit of the pressure off.''

U.S. stocks were poised to rebound from the worst start for a year since 1982 as Fed fund futures showed traders see a 44 percent probability the central bank will lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to boost economic growth at its Jan. 30 meeting. Before Jan. 11, traders saw no chance of a three-quarter point cut.

 

Read more at Bloomberg

Rock raises £2.25bn from mortgage sale

(FT.com) - Northern Rock expects to raise £2.25bn through the sale of its portfolio of Lifetime home equity release mortgages to JPMorgan Chase at a premium to its balance sheet value.

 

The move is likely to be seen as an encouraging sign that buyers are beginning to emerge for mortgage assets owned by the stricken bank that are regarded as good quality.

 

However it may raise concerns that Northern Rock is selling off the better quality assets, leaving the government and shareholders with less attractive portfolios.

A spokesman for Northern Rock said: "It's not a question of degrees of quality. This was an opportunity to sell a relatively small percentage of our assets."

In another twist in the Northern Rock saga, trustees of the pension scheme have asked the company to place members on the same footing as depositors by setting aside enough mortgage assets to guarantee that all promised benefits could be fully paid if the bank becomes insolvent.

The move, detailed in a letter to scheme members sent on Friday, puts yet more pressure on a government that has already extended more than £25bn in loans to keep Northern Rock solvent.

But the bank would be unable to meet the trustees' request to pledge assets as security without the permission of its regulator and the guarantors of its loans - the Financial Services Authority, Bank of England and the Treasury.

In the letter, Sir David Chapman, chairman of the Trustees, notes that if Northern Rock were to become insolvent immediately "significant additional funds would need to be paid into the scheme" of around £150m to £200m.

Last October, as the lender's woes mounted, Trustees moved to shift the scheme's assets into much less risky areas. Nearly half is currently invested in index-linked government gilts.

But Friday's sale of the mortgage portfolio may raise hopes at the Treasury, the FSA and the Bank that a private sale may still be possible.

However, among leading shareholders concerns that the bank is selling the lender's most desirable assets may rise.

The sale value of £2.2bn, represents a premium of 2.25 per cent or about £50m over the balance sheet value, bringing the total cash proceeds from the agreed sale to £2.25bn. The Lifetime assets comprise about 2 per cent of the company's total assets.

Andy Kuipers, new chief executive, welcomed the sale.

"This...is a positive development in the company's ongoing strategic review," he said in a statement.

"It illustrates the quality of our assets, which has enabled us to achieve a sale at a premium despite continuing difficult financial markets, and will allow the company to reduce its debt to the Bank of England."

Read more at FT.com

FTSE falls amid global weakness, food stocks weigh

(Reuters) - Britain's top share index fell on Friday amid global weakness in equities fuelled by fears of more subprime-related writedowns and as food stocks suffered from a brokerage downgrade and profit-warning talk.

Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE shed 0.3 percent to end at 6,202.0 points, while the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 benchmark hit its lowest level in over a year before ending down 0.5 percent.

The New York Times reported Merrill Lynch (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is expected to suffer $15 billion in losses stemming from soured mortgage investments, reminding investors the jury was still out on the extent of the fallout of the credit crisis.

This came on the heels of a profit warning from American Express (AXP.N: Quote, Profile , Research).

Worries over global growth pushed the price of crude further off record highs hit last week, taking oil stocks along with it. BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 0.7 percent and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 1.6 percent as crude slipped to near $93 a barrel.

Unilever (ULVR.L: Quote, Profile, Research) was among the biggest percentage losers on the index after Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating on the consumer goods giant late on Thursday to "underweight" from "equal weight".

Elsewhere in the sector Reckitt Benckiser (RB.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 3.4 percent and Associated British Foods (ABF.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 0.9 percent. Cadbury (CBRY.L: Quote, Profile, Research) shed nearly 3 percent, with traders citing market talk the confectionery group would issue a profit warning. The company had no immediate comment.

 

Read more at Reuters

Merrill seen suffering $15 billion loss: report

(Reuters) - Merrill Lynch (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is expected to suffer $15 billion in losses stemming from soured mortgage investments, almost twice the company's original estimate, the New York Times reported on Friday.

The losses were prompting the company to raise additional capital from an outside investor, the newspaper said in a report on its Web site. Merrill is expected to disclose the huge write-down when it reports earnings next week, the New York Times said, citing people who had been briefed on the company's plans.

The loss exceeds the $12 billion hit that many Wall Street analysts had forecast, the newspaper said.

 

Read more at Reuters

Citigroup and Merrill in talks for foreign capital: report

(Reuters) - Citigroup Inc. (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Merrill Lynch & Co Inc. (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) are in discussions to receive more capital from investors, primarily foreign governments, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

Citigroup could get as much as $10 billion, likely all from foreign governments, while Merrill is expected to get $3 billion to $4 billion, much of it from a Middle Eastern government investment fund, the report said.

The report also said Citigroup's board is expected to discuss cutting the firm's dividend in half, a move that could save it more than $5 billion a year.

Representatives were not immediately available for comment at either bank.

U.S. banks have been wrestling with huge subprime mortgage losses, prompting some to seek cash from sovereign wealth funds

 

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Recession fears are growing

(Reuters) - Expectations for the weakest consumer spending performance in 17 years during 2008 kept the odds of a recession at nearly 40 percent, a survey of top forecasters showed on Thursday.

Panelists surveyed by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter have the odds of a recession in the next year at 38 percent, a little weaker than the 39 percent odds forecast a month ago.

But the most recent survey was taken ahead of December's grim unemployment report and the newsletter stated that growth forecasts would have been weaker if taken after release of that data.

"The January 4th news of the first decline in private sector nonfarm payrolls since July 2003 and whopping 0.3 of a percentage point jump in the unemployment rate during December no doubt caused some of our panelists to further trim their forecasts of economic growth this year and heightened speculation about the possibility of a recession," the newsletter stated.

"Whether or not the economy is already in a recession, about to enter one, or manages to muddle through without one, will only be known in the fullness of time," the newsletter wrote.

Based on the Jan 2-3 survey of economists -- taken a day ahead of the government's weak employment report that showed a huge uptick in the December unemployment rate and the weakest job growth in more than four years -- consumer spending this year is expected to grow at the weakest annual pace since 1991.

 

Read more at Reuters